That Predict Blog is Going Well...
[/sarcasm] So I might as well do some prediction updates here, in a big post.
BEST PICTURE1. Atonement
2. No Country for Old Men
3. The Kite Runner
4. There Will Be Blood
5. Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Atonement and No Country are as close to locks as you can get this far into the race, and Runner is easily the most likely of any political or liberal guilt-y films this year, but we still have to see what it does and how it does it. Blood's chances all rest on whether or not the Academy is willing to Anderson at this point. And Sweeney Todd is only here because there's nothing else I can get behind, not even that. If Tim Burton hasn't been embraced for films that were a lot of his typical style, what are the serious odds this'll make it in?
BEST DIRECTOR1. Joe Wright, Atonement
2. Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
4. Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
5. Marc Forster, The Kite Runner
The hurricane of Atonement also has storms of legitimate merit, and Wright is a huge one. The Academy loves the Coens, and there is no doubt in my mind they'll be here. Lumet has the legend spot, Forster has the culmination spot, and for Anderson, like I said, it all depends on whether of not they'll take to him.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE1. Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
2. James McAvoy, Atonement
3. Denzel Washington, American Gangster
4. Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
5. Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
This is Daniel Day-frickin'-Lewis' game, and everyone else is just playing in it. But McAvoy could pull a fast one, as he is a major standout. Denzel Washington is still Denzel Washington, and he has been wazoo-raved. Elah is one of the many dead-in-the-water films and Jones is it's only chance for a nom at all, but it's strong. As for Hirsch... well, I don't see Hanks or Depp happening, and he's a fresh face in the "people who can actually act" curcuit, and the film is big fat bait, but I don't see it doing anything big weirdly.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE1. Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
2. Julie Christie, Away from Her
3. Laura Linney, The Savages
4. Keira Knightley, Atonement
5. Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Cotillard explained here. Christie is INCREDIBLE, and that combined with the fact she's Julie Christie should (hopefully) get her in. Laura Linney just seems likely, and Keira has her hopes more invested in the hurricane than anyone else in the film because of a lack of raves. Angelina Jolie, who is quite excellent, will re-emerge. The campaining will be relentless, and DVDs to all Academy members. It worked for Crash.
So, that's right: No Page, no Adams, no Carter. Ellen's Juno seems too smart alecky and quirky for the Academy's liking, Adams is a DISNEY PRINCESS (It's not gonna happen people!), and Carter... well Carter has a better chance than both, I think. As time goes on I'm starting to warm to Sweeney, and she could just make it in. And my hope for Cate has faded, sadly...
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE1. Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
2. Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
3. Casey Affleck, TAoJJbtCRF
4. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
5. Philip Bosco, The Savages
Bardem seems the safest lock in all the races, by far. Wilkinson has the "due" thinking. Affleck has the über-raved category fraud. Hoffman has the "body of work" vote, definitely. And Bosco has the underrated and under-the-radar career vote. It all works out.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE1. Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
2. Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
3. Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
4. Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
5. Kelly Macdonald, No Country for Old Men
SAOIRSE '08!
Beyond that blind fury, Blanchett's a lock, Swinton looks incredibly strong and due, Ryan has the buzz, and Macdonald is a whim placement. Although she should have like 70 gazillion Oscars by now.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY1. Brad Bird, Jim Capobianco, and Jan Pinkava, Ratatouille
2. Diablo Cody, Juno
3. Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
4. Steven Zaillian, American Gangster
5. Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Christopher Hampton, Atonement
2. Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
4. Sarah Polley, Away from Her
5. David Benioff, The Kite Runner
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1. Ratatouille
2. Persepolis
3. The Simpsons Movie
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM1. 4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days (Romania)
2. Persepolis (France)
3. The Counterfeiters (Austria)
4. The Edge of Heaven (Germany)
5. Secret Sunshine (Korea)
Also Keeping An Eye OnThe Art of Crying (Denmark)
Days of Darkness (Canada)
Katyn (Poland)
M for Mother (Iran)
The Orphanage (Spain)
Postcards from Leningrad (Venezula)
Silent Night (Mexico)
The Silly Age (Cuba)
The Year My Parents Went on Vacation (Brazil)
BEST ART DIRECTION1. Dennis Gassner, The Golden Compass
2. Dante Ferretti, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
3. Sarah Greenwood, Atonement
4. Stuart Craig, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
5. Arthur Max, American Gangster
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. Alexandra Byrne, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
2. Jacqueline Durran, Atonement
3. Ruth Meyers, The Golden Compass
4. Colleen Atwood, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
5. Rita Ryack, Hairspray
BEST MAKE-UP1. Sweeney Todd...
2. Elizabeth: The Golden Age
3. Hairspray
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Transformers
2. The Golden Compass
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Does any of this sound good to you?
Labels: atonement, javier bardem, juno, kapur's elizabeth, kelly macdonald, marion cotillard, no country for old men, persepolis, predictions, ratatouille, saoirse, sweeney todd, the kite runner, there will be blood
posted by J.D. @ 12:34 AM
17 Comments
17 Comments
"It worked for Crash."
Except Crash made $55mil and was the directorial debut of a oscar-nominated writer, A Mighty Heart made less than $10mil and is from a director they've never warmed to.
I generally agree with your predictions except for Emile Hirsch in "Into the Wild". He was fine enough in the film, but he isn't receiving the raves and there are two other actors (Clooney for "Michael Clayton" and John Cusack for "Grace is Gone") who I expect to make it in before him.
Well, yeah. But without that DVD push it probably wouldn't have even been nominated, so that's what I mean. And has Winterbottom actually had anything that Oscar could've warmed to before this?
I expect nothing for Cusack, and Clooney just seems like someone they wouldn't. [shrugs]
Sweeny Todd hasn't a prayer. People are putting way too much faith in a Tim Burton movie.
Yes, I said that. But there's nothing else that actually makes sense!
Ellen Page will get in for Actress and John Cusack will get in for Actor.
I also don't think American Gangster is going to do all that well with the Academy. There's a feeling that it's great, but not AMAZING. Could be just me being delusional, but I don't know.
She just seems WAY too sarcastic (and young) to what they normally go for, although I KNOW I'll be in her camp.
And he's John Cusack. Pffph.
"But there's nothing else that actually makes sense!"
Before the Devil Knows You're Dead. If they can nom the director, they can nom the film. Juno and American Gangster have better shots, too.
Maybz. But it's November! We're not supposed to think in complete rationally for almost another month!
As far as Supporting Actress: I think you're right on the Ronan, Blanchett, Swinton, and Ryan. Of those four, I think all but Blanchett are locks (at this point, I think Blanchett's stuntiness could go either way). I suspect the 5th spot will go to someone from whatever film emerges as the last-second all-around favorite (unless that turns out to be Atonement or Clayton, in which case there might be a wild card). Right now, the real question for me is whether Jennifer Jason Leigh will get in or not.
That is the million dollar question. The Ronan-Blanchett-Ryan-Swinton-Leigh lineup is so easy, but she's just dropped off almost completely, which sucks. Kelly's been raved, and I love her, so she's in. For now. This is gonna be a peculiar interesting race...
Hey Joe,
Not far off my own thoughts. Some possible changes... Page rather than Knightley for Best Actress (you have to be able to act to win it, generally speaking), del Toro surely for Best Actor (not Jones), Paul Dano, Ethan Hawke and Ben Foster for Supporting Actor (not that this will make any difference, Bardem is a cert), Jennifer Garner for Supporting Actress. I had listed Sarah Polley for Best Director, but then I'm not very objective where she is concerned - just a screenplay nomination would be nice! Does anyone else think I am a complete screwball if I suggest Helena Bonham Carter for the last Harry Potter film for Supporting Actress?
Dave 'Doctorzero99'
1) I'm a Page fanboy and a Knightley fanboy, so watch it. And Keira has the "hurricane" film, so she'll probably get in even though she doesn't support it.
3) TWLitF has already been forgotten. It ain't gonna happen.
3) Paul Dano could happen, I've said that. Bonus: He won my Supporting Actor award for LMS, so there's that part.
4) Ben Foster? Seriously? Maybe he is pretty good, but I don't see Yuma doing anything.
5) Polley getting nominated at all would make me incredibly happy, but she doesn't seem like someone they'd put into Director, but screenplay... maybe, just maybe...
6) And to answer your question, a little, yeah. :)
John Cusack has been getting R-A-V-E-S for Grace is Gone. He should be getting nominated.
Everything gets raves before they open. I think he's just an illusion on the race.
This year the race is so confusing.
My only gripe is that if they warmed to Johnny Depp's Pirate, they will warm to Amy Adam's Primcess. Remember Mary Poppins?
Yeah, but that was forty years ago. And Capt. Jack and Giselle have nothing in common except their in Disney movies. I'm seeing it by Saturday, hopefully, so I'll see if she's as good as she probably is, because she rocks. :)
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